State Key Laboratory of Geological Disasters： The probability of large-scale geological disasters induced by Luding M6.8 earthquake is high.

Zhongxin. com, Chengdu, September 6 (Reporter He Yuqing) The reporter learned from the State Key Laboratory of Ground Disaster Prevention and Geological Environment Protection of Chengdu University of Technology on the 6 th that the research team of strong earthquake geological disasters in the laboratory used the earthquake-induced geological disasters prediction model developed in the previous period to predict the geological disasters induced by the Luding earthquake. The results show that the Luding earthquake has a high probability of inducing large-scale geological disasters due to the influence of this earthquake.

　　At 12: 52 on the 5th, an earthquake of magnitude 6.8 occurred in Luding County, Ganzi Prefecture, Sichuan Province, with a focal depth of 16 kilometers. The epicentre of this earthquake is located near the Moxi fault in the south-east section of Xianshuihe fault zone. Xianshuihe fault is located in the famous Y-shaped fault zone, which is a large left-lateral strike-slip fault zone with strong activity. There is a strong earthquake activity in this area in history. Since 1700, there have been 8 earthquakes with magnitude above M7.0 along this fault zone. The nearest earthquake in space is the Kangding-Luding M7.75 earthquake in Sichuan on June 1, 1786, and the latest earthquake is the Luhuo M7.9 earthquake in Sichuan on February 6, 1973.

　　Fan Xuanmei, a professor of the research team of strong earthquake geological disasters in the laboratory, said that relevant research shows that after the Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake in 2008 and the Lushan M7.0 earthquake in 2013, the Coulomb stress near the Xianshuihe fault increased significantly, and the strike-slip rate of the fault zone increased from north to west to south to east, which has the possibility of inducing major earthquakes.

　　Based on the seismic data recorded by the strong earthquake instrument within 100 kilometers from the epicenter provided by Sichuan Earthquake Administration, the research team of strong earthquake geological disasters analyzed and obtained the PGA distribution map of the peak acceleration of the earthquake, with the maximum value of 644.4cm/s2 and the epicentral distance of 28.3km.

　　The earthquake-induced geological disaster prediction model developed by the strong earthquake geological disaster research team uses the global coseismic landslide database and adopts artificial intelligence algorithm, which can realize the rapid prediction of the near real-time spatial distribution probability of earthquake-induced geological disasters.

　　The prediction results show that due to the influence of this earthquake, the probability of earthquake-induced geological disasters is the highest in the southeast of the epicenter, and the road from Shimian County to Wanggangping Scenic Area is likely to be affected by earthquake-induced geological disasters, and the spatial distribution probability of the eastern part of Hailuogou National Forest Park where the epicenter is located is also high.

　　In addition, the probability of geological disasters in the surrounding areas of Moxi Town and Luding County, such as Lengzhai Town and Daba Village, is also high. Collapse along many township roads in Luding section of National Highway 318, Lengzhai Town and Moxi Town is relatively developed, which has a great impact on traffic. There are many landslide disasters such as Niubeishan Bridge, near Daba Village, Shiyue River Dam, Wanggangping, etc. The predicted results of the model are in good agreement with the actual situation in these areas.

　　According to the analysis, the types of geological disasters caused by this earthquake may mainly be high-level collapses and landslides, and a small number of large-scale deep landslides may occur locally. Some river basins in the earthquake zone may be blocked by landslides, so it is necessary to pay close attention to the risk of burst flood.

　　According to the forecast of the meteorological department, there will be rain in Skyquake in the next few days, so it is necessary to pay close attention to the landslide and debris flow disasters after the earthquake.