Recently, the hot market transactions mainly focus on coal, artificial intelligence and storage. In the industrial trend, GPT-4 Turbo has been launched heavily, opening up new AI commercialization prospects; Intellectual S7 and Aouita 12 appeared, focusing on Huawei’s model to empower car companies. On the policy side, it is suggested to focus on data elements (government data, data confirmation, privacy calculation, data space); Regulatory resource pricing improvement (virtual power plant, energy storage).
Core view
[Market Trading Hotspots] The recent market trading hotspots mainly focus on coal, artificial intelligence and storage.Hot spot one: coal. On the policy side,The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on establishing the electricity price mechanism of coal capacity.From the price point of view,In October, 35.992 million tons of coal were imported, a decrease of 6.148 million tons from the previous month and a significant decrease of 14.59% from the previous month.Judging from the price,The power coal price in Newcastle Port, Australia is US$ 103.3/ton, and the price difference between domestic and overseas is RMB 17.51/ton. The CIF price difference between Australia’s Fengjing coking coal is US$ 381.5/ton, and the price difference between domestic and overseas is -699.67/ton. The coking coal cost is upside down again, and the domestic price increase is relatively smooth.Hot spot 2: artificial intelligence.After the OpenAI model is upgraded and released, its ecosystem will be further established to promote the landing and development of AI-related applications.Hot spot 3: storage.High-end DDR5 and HBM are in short supply recently, and their prices continue to rise; At the same time, with the drastic reduction in production of the upstream original factory and the limited production capacity shifting to the production of high-end products, the prices of traditional models such as DDR4 are also rising, and NAND prices are expected to usher in an inflection point at 23Q4. On the other hand, Changjiang Storage sued Micron Technology Co., Ltd. and its wholly-owned subsidiary Micron Consumer Products Group Co., Ltd. for infringing its eight US patents on November 9.
[Global Industry Trends]Industry trend 1: GPT-4 Turbo is launched heavily, opening up new AI commercialization prospects.On November 6, local time, Open AI held its first developer conference in San Francisco. At the meeting, Open AI brought its upgraded GPT-4 Turbo model. The new version of GPT-4 Turbo supports a 128k context window and can input 300 pages of books at a time. The knowledge information was updated to April 2023, and visual ability, DALL·E 3 and speech synthesis API were added. At the same time, the price of the Turbo version of GPT-4 is lower than that of the original version, and the price of the input side is 1/3 and the output side is 1/2 of that of GPT-4. In addition, Open AI has introduced a function called GPTs, and users can build a GPT with exclusive skills just by communicating their needs through dialogue. OpenAI also released an agent-like application. Developers can use the Assistants API to execute specific instructions, read additional knowledge bases, call models and tools to complete tasks, and are equipped with tools such as code interpreter, retrieval and function call.Industry Trend 2: Intellectual S7 and Aouita 12 appeared, paying attention to the Huawei model to empower car companies.On November 7,Zhijie S7Officially open pre-sale. The first launch of Zhijie S7 is equipped with Huawei Turing intelligent chassis and HarmonyOS 4 intelligent cockpit, as well as HUAWEI ADS 2.0 advanced intelligent driver assistance system and other leading technologies. Smart car brand alliance-HarmonyOS Zhihui guildSynchronous release. On November 10th, Changan, Huawei and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited cooperated deeply.Aouita 12Officially listed. Aouita 12 comes standard with three lidar+HUAWEI ADS 2.0 advanced intelligent driving systems, and is equipped with an intelligent cockpit based on HarmonyOS 4. Huawei has become a leader in the field of smart cars, accelerating the empowerment of more car companies.
[Important policy tracking]】Last week, there were two important marginal changes on the policy side that deserve special attention:1. The data element policy side ushered in multiple catalysis:1) On the 13th, it was reported that the National Bureau of Data was studying and drafting relevant guidance documents, which would promote the construction of data transaction circulation system from the top design. In addition, the Director of the Data Bureau said that he is actively paying attention to the evolution of technologies related to data circulation (privacy computing, data space, etc.); 2) On the 9th, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Data Bureau prepared three groups to hold a symposium, aiming at accelerating the establishment and improvement of the price formation mechanism of public data and promoting the opinions on the paid use of public data for digital development according to government guidance pricing; 3) On the 10th, Hengyang sold data resources and smart city franchise, with a starting price of 1.8 billion yuan, and data resources are expected to become a new starting point for local finance;2. The capacity price policy is expected to be implemented, and the pricing of regulatory resources is gradually strengthened:On the 10th, the "Notice on Establishing Coal Capacity Electricity Price Mechanism" was issued, which will greatly change the profit structure of coal enterprises. From the perspective of future policy expectations, the introduction of capacity electricity price policy shows that the pricing of regulatory resources is strengthening, and it is expected that policies such as pricing optimization and cost sharing of subsequent auxiliary services will be introduced. In summary, it is recommended to focus onData elements(government data, data confirmation, privacy calculation, data space);Regulatory resource pricing improvement(Virtual power plant, energy storage);
[Important information]SMIC: November 9,SMIC Hong Kong stocks released unaudited results in the third quarter of 2023, with revenue of $1.62 billion in 23Q3, which was-15% year-on-year/+3.9% quarter-on-quarter, which was in the guidance median; The gross profit margin was 19.8%, which was -19pcts/ -0.5pct, which was at the upper limit of the guideline. Because the equipment delivery exceeded expectations, Capex in 2023 was revised to 7.5 billion US dollars.Accord to that viewpoint of China merchants electronic,China’s industry inventory tends to be healthy. Looking forward to 2024, the demand for mature processes will increase due to destocking, but the growth momentum is limited. It is expected that the industry will recover in a Double-U(W) shape, and the prices of bulk standard products will continue to decrease.TSMC:On November 10th, TSM.US announced its revenue report for October 2023. Data show that TSMC’s consolidated revenue in October was NT$ 243.203 billion, up 34.8% from the previous month and 15.7% from the same period last year. This is the first year-on-year positive growth of TSMC’s monthly revenue since February this year, highlighting that the global chip market seems to be gradually recovering from the trough. Boosted by this news, TSMC’s US stocks closed up 6.35% on Friday, the biggest one-day gain since May.
[Concerns and suggestions on short-term industrial trends]From a short-term perspective, November needs to focus on five tracks with marginal improvement: integrated circuits (semiconductor equipment, semiconductor materials, storage), artificial intelligence, automotive intelligence, infrastructure (water conservancy), and digital economy (data elements, industrial digitalization).
[Concerns and suggestions on medium and long-term industrial trends]In the medium and long term, we suggest to pay attention to the industrial trends such as digital economy (data elements), artificial intelligence, self-control, etc. under the AI+ scientific and technological revolution, as well as the new technical route of carbon neutral industrial chain driven by cost reduction and efficiency increase, and the penetration rate of electric smart cars increases under the trend of electrification and intelligence.
[Global stock market performance]Last week, global stock markets rose more and fell less.In terms of industry,The industrial indexes with higher A-share gains are: Wonder Optical Module (CPO), Tik Tok Platform and Virtual Human.In terms of plates,The information technology, optional consumption and materials sectors performed well, while the energy sector performed poorly. Among the companies with a market value of more than $20 billion that rose sharply in the past week, information technology and alternative consumer industries are the majority; Among the companies with a market value of more than $20 billion that led the decline in the past week, companies in the health care industry are mostly.
[Risk warning] Macroeconomic fluctuations, subjective pre-judgment deviation, industrial development is less than expected.
Catalogue
01
Core concerns and investment suggestions
1. Prospect of this week’s important events
2. Hot market transactions
Last week, the key theme indexes of A-shares were Wonder Optical Module (CPO), Tik Tok Platform and Virtual Human.
Note: All the stocks involved in this paper are listed or represent the connection with relevant industrial chains, and do not represent the investment suggestions of individual stocks or the research viewpoints of China Merchants. Please refer to the recommendations of the research groups of China Merchants for specific stocks.
Market trading hotspots mainly focus on coal, artificial intelligence and storage:
coal
On the policy side,The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on establishing the electricity price mechanism of coal capacity. The electricity price mechanism of coal capacity is suitable for public coal-fired generating units that are in compliance with the regulations.From the price point of view,In October, 35.992 million tons of coal were imported, a decrease of 6.148 million tons from the previous month and a significant decrease of 14.59% from the previous month, mainly due to the increase in energy prices brought about by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.Judging from the price,The power coal price in Newcastle Port, Australia is US$ 103.3/ton, and the price difference between domestic and overseas is RMB 17.51/ton. The CIF price difference between Australia’s Fengjing coking coal is US$ 381.5/ton, and the price difference between domestic and overseas is -699.67/ton. The coking coal cost is upside down again, and the domestic price increase is relatively smooth. In addition, the issuance of 1 trillion treasury bonds and the bottom of Vanke have also brought a certain boost to metallurgical coal (double coke) mainly used for construction, so the double coke futures have continued to be strong recently.
artificial intelligence
OpenAI held the first developer conference, with the core contents as follows:1. In terms of model upgrading,GPT-4 comes out with Turbo version, which has better performance and 128K context window, and the cost is reduced by 2-3 times.2. in terms of assistant API,Developers can build an autonomous Agent with the function of accessing tools, and can automatically call code interpreter, search, function call and other functions.3. In terms of customizing GPTs,Without code, the user-defined GPT is created in natural language, which greatly improves the convenience for enterprises to build large-scale model applications.4. in the GPT store,Similar to APP store, you can make and upload all kinds of large model applications. On the whole, after the OpenAI model is upgraded and liberalized, its ecosystem will be further established to promote the landing and development of AI-related applications.
save
Accord to that viewpoint of China merchants electronic,High-end DDR5 and HBM are in short supply recently, and their prices continue to rise; At the same time, with the drastic reduction in production of the upstream original factory and the limited production capacity shifting to the production of high-end products, the prices of traditional models such as DDR4 are also rising, and NAND prices are expected to usher in an inflection point at 23Q4. On the other hand, Changjiang Storage sued Micron Technology Co., Ltd. and its wholly-owned subsidiary Micron Consumer Products Group Co., Ltd. for infringing its eight US patents on November 9. Changjiang Storage said in the patent infringement indictment that the lawsuit was to terminate Micron’s extensive and unauthorized use of Changjiang Storage’s patent innovation. Changjiang Storage is the largest 3D NAND Flash manufacturer in China. Changjiang Storage mentioned in the indictment that Micron used Changjiang Storage’s patented technology to resist competition from Changjiang Storage and gain and protect market share. The lawsuit aims to solve one aspect of the following problems: Micron tried to prevent competition and innovation by forcing Changjiang Storage to withdraw from the 3D NAND Flash market.
3. Changes in theme and industry trend: GPT-4 Turbo model is completely upgraded, and Huawei’s three modes of car manufacturing empower car companies.
(1)GPT-4 Turbo is launched heavily, opening up new AI commercialization prospects.
The stronger version of GPT-4 Turbo has been launched, which is both economical and practical. On November 6, local time, Open AI held its first developer conference in San Francisco. At the meeting, Open AI brought its upgraded GPT-4 Turbo model.The new version of GPT-4 Turbo updates the knowledge information to April 2023, and supports a 128k context window, which can input 300 pages of books at a time. OpenAI’s instruction tracking has been improved, and a new function called JSON Mode has been introduced to ensure that developers can make it easier for models to call JSON and XML content. At the same time, the seed (random seed value) parameter is added to realize repeatable output. In the next few weeks, the logprobs parameter will be added to see the most likely output probability distribution of the model. In terms of price, the price of GPT-4 Turbo input tokens is 1/3 of that of GPT-4 (1k tokens only costs 0.01 USD), and the price of output Tokens is 1/2 of that of GPT-4 (1k Tokens costs 0.03 USD). This shows that GPT-4 Turbo has stronger performance, cheaper price and lower development cost.
The re-launch of new products and new modes has expanded the development scope of AI applications, and AI commercialization is expected to land.AssistAgentts API is the first step for developers to build an agent-like experience in their own applications. (1)Assistants API innovatively introduces a persistent thread with infinite length to solve the limitation of context window. (2) Use knowledge outside the model to enhance the supporting retrieval function, such as proprietary domain data, product information or documents provided by users. (3) Expand the function of code interpreter. Write and run Python code in sandbox execution environment, generate graphs and charts, and handle files with various data and formats. (4) Update the function calling function and call multiple functions at one time, which improves the flexibility and efficiency of the API. In addition, GPT-4 Turbo has added visual ability, DALL·E3 and speech synthesis API. Support image input, automatically summarize image content and document content with images. It is expected that with the application development and scene expansion, the big model will be used as the entrance to many AI+ application fields such as AI+ office, AI+ games and AI+ education.
The launch of GPTs stores will encourage individuals and enterprises to make more extensive use of customized GPT and open up new commercial prospects.Everyone can build a GPT with exclusive skills by talking and chatting without programming. OpenAI is about to release GPTs stores, where users can easily create, share and make money. The exclusive GPT can be used not only as a pet consultant and design assistant, but also as an assistant for startup companies to meet the needs of different fields. By interacting with GPT Builder, users can easily build a dedicated GPT and share it with others. At the same time, OpenAI emphasizes screening harmful content through the new system to improve security. Generally speaking, the opening of GPTs store provides more space for personalized application of AI, breaks the traditional gap between users and models in the AI field, and also brings more flexible and innovative AI solutions for entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs.
(2) Zhijie S7 and Aouita 12 appeared, paying attention to the Huawei model to empower car companies.
Huawei’s smart car selection wisdom S7 opens pre-sale.On November 9, Huawei officially released the new strategy of smart travel solutions and launched the new ecosystem of Huawei’s smart car selection business in Shenzhen. At the press conference, Huawei announced that Zhijie S7 officially opened for pre-sale. Zhijie S7 is the first car in Huawei’s smart car selection business. It is jointly built by Huawei and Chery and produced on a brand-new platform built by Huawei’s full-stack smart car solution. Starting from the pre-sale price of 258,000 yuan, the brand-new family design is the same as that of the M9. The first launch is equipped with Huawei Turing intelligent chassis and HarmonyOS 4 intelligent cockpit, as well as HUAWEI ADS 2.0 advanced intelligent driving assistance system and other leading technologies, which will be officially released on November 28th. By November 10th, Zhijie S7 had more than 5,000 user orders within 15 hours of the pre-sale stage.
The intellectual S7 has many bright spots. (1) Intelligent S7 is equipped with HarmonyOS 4 intelligent cockpit for the first time.Adopt ark engine, bring a brand-new 3D car control desktop, and the control is more silky. Smart voice assistant xiaoyi accesses Pangu big model.(2) Launch Huawei Turing Intelligent Chassis.Perfect combination of intelligent control and mechanical adjustment, with maneuverability and comfort.(3) Equipped with a new generation of DriveONE 800V high-voltage silicon carbide gold power platform.It has stronger power and lower energy consumption. The total power of the four-wheel drive version is 365kW, the acceleration of 100 kilometers is only 3.3s, and the braking distance of 100 kilometers is only 33.5m m.(4) Equipped with HUAWEI ADS 2.0, a smarter high-order intelligent driving system.Start parking on behalf of the driver, realize over-the-horizon autonomous parking, can actively identify abnormal obstacles to avoid obstacles, easily deal with complex road conditions, and do not rely on high-precision maps.
At the press conference, HarmonyOS Zhihang, the brand alliance of intelligent car selection, was released simultaneously.HarmonyOS Zhixing can realize a more efficient and safer driving experience by integrating 5G technology, high-precision mapping and automatic driving technology. At the same time, the system can also support interoperability between different devices, and can be connected with other devices (such as mobile phones, tablets, smart homes, etc.) to realize information sharing.Besides, HarmonyOS Zhixing can be regarded as an extension of HarmonyOS operating system in the field of automobiles.HarmonyOS Zhixing is based on intelligent cockpit, intelligent driving and HarmonyOS car operating system, supplemented by other HarmonyOS application ecology. HarmonyOS Zhixing is not only a car system, but also an application of smart home, smart travel and smart office.
On November 10th, Aouita 12, which was deeply cooperated by Changan, Huawei and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, was officially listed.After 36 hours on the market, the cumulative total will exceed 6700+. Aouita 12 is equipped with the drive motor provided by Huawei, and it can be powered by 230kW single motor and 425kW front and rear dual motors. The fastest acceleration time is 3.9 seconds and the cruising range is over 700 kilometers. The car is also equipped with Huawei iTRACK dynamic torque distribution system, which can scan the road environment with microsecond ultra-fine real-time road condition sensing technology, and realize millimeter-level torque fine-tuning when encountering complex road conditions such as speed bumps and low-attached roads. In terms of intelligent driving, Aouita 12 comes standard with three lidar+HUAWEI ADS 2.0 advanced intelligent driving systems, equipped with an intelligent cockpit based on HarmonyOS 4.
Huawei has become a leader in the field of smart cars, accelerating the empowerment of more car companies.With the hot sales of Smart S7 and Aouita, the market sentiment has been catalyzed, and Huawei’s three car-making modes (standardized parts mode, HI mode and smart car selection mode) will receive more and more attention. At the press conference on November 9, Huawei launched a unified ecological alliance of the smart car selection business, which includes the world, the intellectual community and other brands that will be launched in the future. In the future, Huawei’s cooperation with more car companies will help the continuous upgrading of intelligent driving of automobiles.
4. On the policy side: Hengyang will transfer the franchise rights related to data resources, and the capacity electricity price policy is expected to land.
Last week, there were two important marginal changes on the policy side that deserve special attention:1. The data element policy side ushered in multiple catalysis:1) On the 13th, it was reported that the National Bureau of Data was studying and drafting relevant guidance documents, which will promote the construction of data transaction circulation system from the top design. In addition, the Director of the Data Bureau said that he is actively paying attention to the evolution of technologies related to data circulation (privacy computing, data space, etc.); 2) On the 9th, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Data Bureau prepared three groups to hold a symposium, aiming at accelerating the establishment and improvement of the price formation mechanism of public data and promoting the opinions on the paid use of public data for digital development according to government guidance pricing; 3) On the 10th, Hengyang sold data resources and smart city franchise, with a starting price of 1.8 billion yuan.Data resources are expected to become a new starting point for local finance;2. The capacity price policy is expected to be implemented, and the pricing of regulatory resources is gradually strengthened:On the 10th, the "Notice on Establishing Coal Capacity Electricity Price Mechanism" was issued, which will greatly change the profit structure of coal enterprises. From the perspective of future policy expectations, the introduction of capacity electricity price policy shows that the pricing of regulatory resources is strengthening, and it is expected that policies such as pricing optimization and cost sharing of subsequent auxiliary services will be introduced.
(1) Multiple catalysis of data factor policy, Hengyang transferred the franchise rights related to data resources.
The policy side of data elements ushered in multiple catalysis: 1) On November 13, according to the report of China Securities Journal, the National Data Bureau was studying and drafting relevant guidance documents, which would be designed from the top.Promote the construction of data transaction circulation system.In addition, the Director of the Data Bureau said that he is actively paying attention to the evolution of technologies related to data circulation.(hiddenPrivate computing, data space, etc.); 2) On November 9, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Bureau of Data held a symposium to accelerate the establishment and improvement of the price formation mechanism of public data and promote the development of digital.Public dataOpinions on pricing and paid use according to government guidance; 3) On November 10th, Hengyang transferred data resources and smart city franchise, with a starting price of 1.8 billion yuan.Data resources are expected to become a new starting point for local finance..Therefore, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to investment opportunities related to data elements (government data, data confirmation, privacy computing, data space).
Hengyang sells data resources and smart city franchise rights, and data resources are expected to become a new starting point for local finance.On November 10th, the transaction announcement of Hengyang municipal government data resources and smart city franchise transfer project was released. According to the announcement, the transferee will obtain the franchise of data resources generated after the completion of Hengyang Smart City or other financial investment information systems. The return mechanism of the project is "user pays". During the franchise period, the franchisee can collect fees from users within the franchise scope as a return for project construction. The starting price of the project is about 1.8 billion yuan, and the deposit is about 300 million yuan. [1]
We believe that the transfer of data resources management rights has begun to partially replace the transfer of land use management rights, and it has become a new source of local government revenue, and it is even expected to become a new starting point for local finance.Observing the income of the two accounts in Hengyang City, it is found that the income of Hengyang government funds accounts for a high proportion of the two accounts. The main component of government funds is land transfer fees. However, observing the data of the middle finger, it is found that the land transaction amount in Hengyang City in the first half of this year was only 3.3 billion yuan, which was smaller than the 15.4 billion yuan in 2022. In the future, the transfer of data resource management rights is expected to become a new starting point for local finance.
The potential total size of the data asset market is in the order of trillions.As an important new kinetic energy to promote economic growth in the future, the data asset market has a potential total size of 10 trillion. Tang Qifeng, general manager of Shanghai Data Exchange, once mentioned that if data assets enter the table, it may create another 100 trillion yuan of new assets; Lu Yanchun, director of the price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that according to preliminary estimates, the scale of data element expenditure of enterprises nationwide is about 3.3 trillion yuan. If we consider derivative markets such as data asset evaluation, pledge and financing, the overall scale may exceed 30 trillion yuan [2]. In terms of data elements, according to the report of ICT Institute, by 2025, the market scale of data elements in China, which is composed of core data elements such as data collection, data cleaning, data labeling and data transaction, is expected to exceed 174.9 billion yuan and enter a high-speed development stage.
In the accelerated construction of the data circulation trading system, the value of data elements is expected to be released continuously.In December 2022, the "Twenty Data Articles" put forward the establishment of a classification and authorization system for public data, enterprise data and personal data, as well as the data property right system framework of data resource holding right, processing right and management right, and "separation of three powers". Since then, the specific rules have continued to fall, and the pace of policy introduction has obviously accelerated in the second half of this year. In August, the "Interim Provisions on Accounting Treatment Related to Enterprise Data Resources" policy was promulgated to guide the entry of enterprise data assets into the table; In September, China Asset Appraisal Association issued the Guiding Opinions on Data Asset Appraisal, and the detailed rules for data asset appraisal were issued. On October 25th, the National Data Bureau was established, which is responsible for coordinating and promoting the construction of basic data systems and coordinating the integration, sharing, development and utilization of data resources. With the introduction of various detailed rules and policies to support the development of data elements, the construction of data element market is expected to accelerate. Judging from the expectation of the follow-up policy, considering that the Interim Provisions on Accounting Treatment Related to Enterprise Data Resources will be implemented next year, the data confirmation policy is expected to be launched as soon as the end of the year.To sum up, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the relevant investment opportunities of data elements (government data, data confirmation, privacy computing, data space).
(2) The capacity price policy is expected to be implemented, and the pricing of regulatory resources is gradually strengthened.
On November 10th, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau jointly issued the Notice on Establishing the Electricity Price Mechanism of Coal Capacity, and decided to adjust the current single electricity price of coal to two-part electricity price. Among them, the electricity price is formed through marketization, and the capacity price level is gradually adjusted according to the actual situation such as the progress of coal-fired power transformation. The "Notice" clarifies that the coal capacity electricity price policy shall be implemented for public coal-fired power units that are in compliance with the regulations, and the capacity electricity price shall be determined according to the method of recovering a certain proportion of fixed costs of coal-fired power units. Among them, the fixed cost of coal-fired power units used to calculate the capacity electricity price is subject to the national unified standard, which is 330 yuan per kilowatt per year; From 2024 to 2025, the proportion of fixed costs recovered by capacity electricity price in most places is about 30%, and some places with rapid transformation of coal-fired power functions are appropriately higher; From 2026, the proportion of fixed costs recovered by capacity electricity prices will be increased to not less than 50%. The electricity charge of coal capacity is included in the system operation cost, and is shared by industrial and commercial users according to the proportion of electricity consumption in that month every month. [3]We believe that the proposal of capacity price is of great significance, which will greatly change the profit structure of coal-fired power companies, significantly enhance the utility attributes of coal-fired power companies, and make the profit structure more stable.From the perspective of future policy expectations, the introduction of capacity electricity price policy shows that the pricing of regulatory resources is strengthening, and it is expected that policies such as pricing optimization and cost sharing of subsequent auxiliary services are expected to be further introduced.
Judging from the currently promulgated standards, the fixed cost recovery ratio of coal-fired power units in provinces with rapid coal-fired power transformation, such as Henan, Hunan, Sichuan, Yunnan and Chongqing, is about 50%, and the corresponding capacity electricity price is 165 yuan/kilowatt year; The recovery cost ratio of other provinces is 30%, and the corresponding capacity electricity price is in 100 yuan/kilowatt year.
After the second meeting of the Deep Reform Commission, the reform of the energy and power system was accelerated.The proposal of capacity price is of great significance, which will greatly change the profit structure of coal-fired power companies, and the utility attributes of coal-fired power companies will be significantly enhanced and the profit structure will be more stable. From the perspective of future policy expectations, the introduction of capacity electricity price policy shows that the pricing of regulatory resources is strengthening, and it is expected that policies such as pricing optimization and cost sharing of subsequent auxiliary services are expected to be further introduced.
5. Investment suggestions
November needs to focus on five tracks with marginal improvement:Integrated circuit (semiconductor equipment, semiconductor materials, storage), artificial intelligence, automobile intelligence, infrastructure (water conservancy), digital economy (data elements, industrial digitalization).
In the medium and long term, we suggest to pay attention to the industrial trends such as digital economy (data elements), artificial intelligence, self-control, etc. under the AI+ scientific and technological revolution, as well as the new technical route of carbon neutral industrial chain driven by cost reduction and efficiency increase, and the penetration rate of electric smart cars increases under the trend of electrification and intelligence.
02
Global Watch: Global Market Tracking
1. Performance of global stock market industry
Last week, global stock markets rose more and fell less, with information technology, optional consumption and materials sectors performing better and energy sectors performing poorly.
Specifically,US stocks rose more and fell less,Information technology and telecommunications services led the gains, while energy and public utilities led the declines. On November 3, the data of the October non-farm payrolls report released by the United States was less than expected. The market generally believed that this would make the Fed slow down the pace of raising interest rates or even cut interest rates, and the stock bond market rose accordingly.In terms of European stocks,Information technology and industrial sectors led the gains, while optional consumer sectors led the declines.In the British stock market,Information technology and industry sectors led the gains, while materials and daily consumption sectors performed poorly.In the Japanese stock market,The information technology and industrial sectors led the gains, while the financial sector led the declines. In terms of Hong Kong stocks, only medical care rose slightly, and many sectors such as materials, energy and real estate plummeted.A shares rose more and fell less.The information technology and real estate sectors led the gains, while the daily consumption and telecommunications services sectors led the declines.
2. Brief analysis of global powerful stocks and exotic stocks.
Among the companies with a market value of more than $20 billion that rose sharply in the past week, information technology and alternative consumer industries are the majority; Among the companies with a market value of more than $20 billion that led the decline in the past week, companies in the health care industry are mostly.
Brief analysis of abnormal shares
【Datadog】On November 7, Datadog, a cloud monitoring and analysis software company, announced its third-quarter financial report. According to the financial report, the company announced quarterly revenue of $547.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 25%, exceeding analysts’ expectations of about $520 million. This growth rate is basically consistent with the strong results in the second quarter. Adjusted earnings per share was 45 cents, which was also higher than analysts’ expectations of 34 cents, compared with 23 cents in the same period last year. Datadog also raised its annual revenue and profit expectations. The company currently expects the fourth quarter revenue range to be between $564 million and $568 million, and the annual revenue is expected to be about $2.1 billion. The two expected figures released by Datadog exceeded the average analyst expectations of $543.3 million and $2.06 billion.
【Trade Desk】Trade Desk provides a self-service platform to help advertisers and advertising agencies find and purchase digital advertising inventory (display, video, audio, native and social) programmatically on different devices (such as computers, smart phones, home digital and Internet TV), and use data to optimize the performance of purchased advertising impressions. This week, Trade Desk issued performance guidance, and the company expects Q4 revenue to be at least $580 million, far below the consensus forecast of analysts of $610 million. The company also expects the adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of Q4 to be about $270 million, which is also less than the consensus forecast of analysts of $290 million.
03
Important information express
1. Domestic industrial policies and news
(1) Strategic emerging industries-promoting the concentration of state-owned capital in forward-looking strategic emerging industries (☆☆☆)
On November 11th, the Party Committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held an enlarged meeting. The meeting stressed that it is necessary to do a good job in the state-owned capital operation budget of the state-owned central enterprise system at a high level, make clear the capital investment, make scientific plans, strengthen performance management, and formulate capital injection plans for key industries, key fields and core enterprises in combination with the layout and structural adjustment plan of the state-owned economy and the development strategy of central enterprises. We will promote the concentration of state-owned capital in important industries and key areas related to national security and the lifeline of the national economy, in industries related to the national economy and people’s livelihood, such as providing public services, building emergency response capabilities and public welfare, and in forward-looking strategic emerging industries, strictly enforce financial and economic discipline, urge enterprises to manage and make good use of budget funds in accordance with laws and regulations, and effectively improve the efficiency of funds. Guide central enterprises to deepen reform, strengthen supervision, combine the reform of state-owned enterprises with deepening and upgrading actions, clarify key supervision tasks, improve supervision system and mechanism, innovate supervision methods and means, promote the high-quality development of enterprises, effectively implement major national strategies and planning tasks, better meet the needs of building a modern infrastructure system, better safeguard national security, and better play the strategic supporting role of the state-owned economy.
(2) Automobile-Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao raised concerns about the EU’s anti-subsidy investigation on China’s electric vehicles and restrictions on China enterprises’ participation in the EU’s 5G construction (☆☆☆).
On November 10th, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with European Commission Internal Market Commissioner Breton in Beijing. The two sides had a frank and in-depth exchange of views on China-EU economic and trade relations, electric vehicles, 5G and supply chain cooperation. Wang Wentao focused on the EU’s anti-subsidy investigation on China’s electric vehicles and restrictions on China enterprises’ participation in the EU’s 5G construction. He hoped that the EU would abide by WTO rules and the spirit of fair competition and create a fair, just and non-discriminatory environment for China-EU economic and trade cooperation. Brayton said that the EU attaches importance to EU-China economic and trade relations, and believes that although there are some differences between the two sides, mutually beneficial cooperation can still be carried out in many fields, and it is willing to strengthen communication with China and jointly build a stable and mutual trust supply chain.
(3) Coal-two departments: establish the electricity price mechanism of coal capacity (☆☆☆).
On November 10th, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on establishing the electricity price mechanism of coal capacity. The electricity price mechanism of coal capacity is suitable for public coal-fired generating units that are in compliance with the regulations. Coal-fired self-owned power plants, coal-fired generating units that do not meet the national planning, and coal-fired generating units that do not meet the national requirements for energy consumption, environmental protection and flexible adjustment, etc., do not implement the capacity price mechanism, and the details will be separately clarified by the National Energy Administration. The electricity price of coal capacity is determined according to the method of recovering a certain proportion of the fixed cost of coal-fired generator sets. Among them, the fixed cost of coal-fired power units used to calculate the capacity electricity price is subject to the national unified standard, which is 330 yuan per kilowatt per year; Based on the fixed cost ratio of capacity electricity price recovery, considering the needs of local power systems and the transformation of coal-fired power functions, it is determined that it will be about 30% in most places in 2024-2025, and it is about 50% in some places where the transformation of coal-fired power functions is faster. From 2026, the proportion of fixed costs recovered by capacity electricity prices will be raised to not less than 50%.
(4) Economic data-National Bureau of Statistics: China’s PPI decreased by 2.6% year-on-year in October, which was the same as the previous month; CPI decreased by 0.2% year-on-year and 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (☆☆☆).
On November 9, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in October, the ex-factory price of industrial producers nationwide decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, which was the same as that of the previous month. The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 3.7% year-on-year and increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter. From January to October, the ex-factory price of industrial producers decreased by 3.1% compared with the same period of last year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 3.6%.
The national consumer price dropped by 0.2% year-on-year. Among them, the city decreased by 0.1% and the rural area decreased by 0.5%; Food prices fell by 4.0% and non-food prices rose by 0.7%; Consumer goods prices fell by 1.1%, and service prices rose by 1.2%. From January to October, the national consumer price rose by 0.4% over the same period of last year.
(5) Semiconductor chip-Changjiang Storage, the largest flash memory chip manufacturer in China, sued Micron for patent infringement in the United States (☆☆☆).
According to a report by Cailian on November 11th, the reporter learned from the information released by the Northern District Court of California that Changjiang Storage sued Micron Technology Co., Ltd. and its wholly-owned subsidiary Micron Consumer Products Group Co., Ltd. on November 9th for infringing its eight American patents. Changjiang Storage said in the patent infringement indictment that the lawsuit was to terminate Micron’s extensive and unauthorized use of Changjiang Storage’s patent innovation. Changjiang Storage is the largest 3D NAND Flash manufacturer in China. Changjiang Storage mentioned in the indictment that Micron used Changjiang Storage’s patented technology to resist competition from Changjiang Storage and gain and protect market share. The lawsuit aims to solve one aspect of the following problems: Micron tried to prevent competition and innovation by forcing Changjiang Storage to withdraw from the 3D NAND Flash market.
(6) medical insurance-Shanghai take-out medicine pilot medical insurance payment (☆☆)
According to The Paper’s report on November 6th, relevant departments in Shanghai have contacted Hungry, Meituan platform to pilot the payment of medical insurance for Internet pharmacies, and dozens of pharmacies have been included. In Shanghai, you can order drugs with the words "medical insurance payment" through Meituan takeaway or hungry app. The page shows that you can pay from your personal electronic medical insurance card account. At present, only some pharmacies with the words "medical insurance payment" can use medical insurance. After the reporter’s experience, it was found that the price of the same drug will be different in pharmacies with the words "medical insurance payment" and pharmacies without the words. Generally speaking, those who can be paid by medical insurance are less at their own expense.
(7) Robot-Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center Co., Ltd. was formally established in the Robot Innovation Industrial Park of Economic Development Zone (☆)
According to a report by Cailian on November 9, in the news, Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center Co., Ltd. was formally established in the Robot Innovation Industrial Park in Economic Development Zone recently, and it is planned to carry out five key tasks, such as the prototype of universal humanoid robot and the universal large model of humanoid robot. This is the first provincial humanoid robot innovation center in China. Beijing Xiaomi Robot Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing Youbixuan Intelligent Robot Co., Ltd. and Beijing Jingcheng Electromechanical Industry Investment Co., Ltd. jointly hold shares.
(8) Capital market policy-The CSRC comprehensively revised the Regulations on On-site Inspection of Initial Public Offerings, and strengthened the "responsibility upon declaration" (☆)
On November 10th, the CSRC publicly solicited opinions on the Provisions on On-site Inspection of Initial Enterprises (Revised Draft for Comment). The CSRC has comprehensively revised the Inspection Regulations, mainly involving the following aspects: First, it has strengthened the "declaration means responsibility". Enforce stricter institutional constraints on the withdrawal of applications after inspection, repeated similar problems during inspection, and refusal to hinder inspection; The second is to standardize the inspection operation. Further clarify the specific procedures and requirements for overall planning before inspection, promotion during inspection and post-inspection treatment, unify inspection standards, and improve inspection standardization; The third is to adjust some expressions applicable to the approval system in the Inspection Regulations.
(9) Capital market policy-Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges revised the refinancing guide to prevent the concept of "lofty" confusion from being suspected of violating the rules (☆☆)
On November 8 and 10, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges revised a series of guidelines on trading business and self-regulation in view of the refinancing problem. Among them, shareholders who hold more than 5% of shares in a listed company, but whose shares are less than 5% due to refinancing and lending, are still bound by the corresponding rules according to the shareholding ratio after merger calculation, that is, they are not allowed to reduce their holdings in violation of regulations, not to conduct short-term transactions, and not to conduct margin financing and securities lending transactions with the shares of the listed company as the underlying securities. At the same time, in the periodic reports of listed companies, including shareholders holding more than 5%, as well as the top ten shareholders and top ten tradable shareholders, the number and proportion of shares lent through refinancing at the beginning and end of the report should be stated. This will further improve the transparency of information disclosure on the lending situation of major shareholders’ refinancing stocks.
(10) Intelligent driving-Shanghai: Pilot operation of self-driving buses at specific time and road sections in the central city (☆☆)
According to a report by Cailian on November 7, Shanghai has formed a rich scene of self-driving test roads, with a total of 926 roads and 1,800 kilometers opened, ranking first in the country in mileage. This year, it will further expand the road scene of automatic driving test in Pudong New Area, and provide a wider range and more scene test environments in Jinqiao and Pudong Airport. Continue to deepen the layout of intelligent networked vehicle test scenarios, explore the sustainable, reproducible and scalable commercialization path of autonomous driving, and accelerate the demonstration operation of intelligent networked vehicles on a large scale. Pilot operation of self-driving buses at specific time periods and road sections in the central city.
(11) Automobile-China Automobile Association: In October, the automobile sales volume was 2.853 million, up by 13.8% year-on-year (☆).
According to the report of Cailian on November 10th, the data of China Automobile Association showed that in October, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.891 million and 2.853 million respectively, with the output increasing by 1.5% from the previous month, while the sales volume decreased by 0.2% from the previous month, increasing by 11.2% and 13.8% respectively. Automobile production and sales hit a new high in the same period of the month after September. From January to October, the production and sales of automobiles were 24.016 million and 23.967 million respectively, up 8% and 9.1% year-on-year, respectively. The growth rate of production was 0.7 percentage points higher than that of January-September, and the growth rate of sales was 0.9 percentage points higher than that of January-September.
2. Foreign industrial policies and news
(1) Federal Reserve dynamics-Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: If appropriate, the Federal Reserve will not hesitate to raise interest rates (☆☆☆).
According to a report by Cailian on November 10th, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Federal Reserve would "continue to be cautious"; If appropriate, the Fed will not hesitate to raise interest rates; Pay attention to the risk that strong growth may undermine the process of slowing inflation, which may require monetary policy to respond; Inflation has dropped, but it is still far above the 2% target; Satisfied with the progress of inflation, but "there is still a long way to go"; The labor market is still tense, but it is moving towards a better balance; We expect GDP growth to slow down in the next few quarters, but it remains to be seen; Greater progress in inflation in the future may come from tight monetary policy, not just the improvement of supply side; The Federal Reserve will start the next framework review in the second half of 2024.
(2) Semiconductor chips-Both NVIDIA and Intel plan to launch improved AI chip NVIDIA products in China market or mass production at the end of the year (☆☆☆).
According to a report by Cailian on November 9th, it is reported that NVIDIA will launch three AI chips for the China market in response to the latest chip sales restriction in the United States. The document shows the detailed specifications of the products to be launched in NVIDIA, namely HGX H20, L20 PCle and L2 PCle, which are based on Hopper and Ada architecture in NVIDIA respectively. The sample delivery time is from November to December this year, and the mass production time is from December this year to January next year. A number of NVIDIA industrial chain companies confirmed the above news to reporters, and one of them told reporters that the three AI chip products are suitable for cloud training, cloud reasoning and edge reasoning respectively. However, the specific launch time has not been confirmed.
(3) VR/AR/MR-Meta and Tencent have reached a preliminary agreement to sell VR headsets in China (☆☆☆).
According to a report by Cailian on November 10th, Meta Platforms and Tencent have reached a preliminary agreement to sell a new VR headset with lower price in China. Tencent will start selling this VR headset from the end of 2024. It is a preliminary agreement at present, and the details may change. Meta will hold a higher proportion of equipment sales, and Tencent will occupy a larger share of content and service revenue, such as software subscription and game sales.
(4) Artificial Intelligence-OpenAI held the first developer conference to launch a user-defined version of ChatGPT(☆☆☆).
According to a report by Cailian on November 7, OpenAI now allows users to build a customized version of ChatGPT to complete specific personal and professional tasks, in order to beat competitors in the increasingly crowded market. OpenAI plans to launch a store where users can find GPT customized by other users and earn revenue through their own GPT. OpenAI said at the first developer conference that it will launch a preview version of the latest GPT-4 Turbo, which is a more powerful and faster version supporting the big language model.
(5) Crude oil-EIA: It is estimated that Brent price will be 83.99 USD/barrel in 2023 and WTI crude oil price will be 79.41 USD/barrel (☆).
According to a report by Cailian on November 8, EIA’s short-term energy outlook report shows that Brent price is expected to be 83.99 USD/barrel in 2023, compared with 84.09 USD/barrel previously expected. It is estimated that the Brent price will be 93.24 USD/barrel in 2024, compared with 94.91 USD/barrel previously. WTI crude oil price is estimated to be 79.41 USD/barrel in 2023, compared with 79.59 USD/barrel previously expected. WTI crude oil price is estimated to be 89.24 USD/barrel in 2024, compared with 90.91 USD/barrel previously.
(6) VR/AR/MR-Apple’s second generation Vision Pro head exposure: the internal code name Project Alaska will be released at the end of 2025 at the earliest (☆☆).
According to the science and technology innovation board Journal reported on November 11th, according to the technology media MacRumors, the internal code of the second-generation Vision Pro headset of Apple is Project Alaska, which retains the appearance features and button position of the previous generation, but the position of the speaker and the design of the fixing strap will be adjusted. The second generation Vision Pro is scheduled to enter the product verification and testing stage in 2025, and the expected release date is the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026.
(7) Semiconductor Chip/mask aligner-ASML, a mask aligner giant in the Netherlands: By the end of 2023, the installed capacity of ASML plus measuring machines in mask aligner, China will be close to 1,400 (☆☆).
According to a report by Cailian on November 6th, Shen Bo, global senior vice president of Dutch mask aligner giant ASML and president of China, said that from 1988, the first machine was shipped to China, and by the end of 2023, the installed capacity of ASML in mask aligner, China, was close to 1,400. "In fact, our growth in China over the years is still very impressive. We have been constantly investing in this matter. " Recently, the United States announced the latest chip export control measures. Shen Bo said that the new measures are somewhat complicated and ASML is still studying its specific impact. "If we understand it at present, it will bring restrictions on export control to a few customers. From the perspective of quantity, based on the business volume of ASML in China this year, it will probably have an impact of 10-15% on our business next year, so it is generally good.
(8) Medicine-Novo Nordisk will invest 6 billion US dollars to expand the production capacity of the Danish factory (☆☆).
According to a report by Cailian on November 10th, Novo Nordisk said that it will invest more than 42 billion Danish kroner (about 6 billion US dollars) to expand its production facilities in Denmark from 2023 to produce the product portfolio of serious and chronic diseases at present and in the future. The company added that these construction projects will be gradually completed from the end of 2025 to 2029. Novo Nordisk said that this investment will create more capacity in the company’s global value chain, including the production and packaging of APIs, most of which will be used to increase the capacity of APIs. The company said in a statement: "This investment will improve the company’s ability to meet future market demand, including GLP-1 products."
(9) Medicine —— Eli Lilly’s diabetes drug is approved by FDA for adult weight loss (☆).
According to a report by Cailian on November 9, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced on Wednesday that it has approved Zepbound injection from Lilly Company for long-term weight management of adults, which is suitable for obese adults (with a BMI of 30 or higher) or overweight adults (with a BMI of 27 or higher) and at least one weight-related condition (such as hypertension, type II diabetes or high cholesterol). Telpotide is an active ingredient in Zepbound, which has been approved under the trade name of Mounjaro to help improve the blood sugar level of adults with type 2 diabetes.
(10) Artificial Intelligence-OpenAI introduces data partnership (☆☆)
According to a report by Cailian on November 10th, OpenAI said that the company introduced OpenAI data partnership, and we will cooperate with organizations to produce public and private data sets for training artificial intelligence models.
